加拿大中产收入稳步增长，而加人负债接近崩溃

中产收入没那么差

一直以来，人们普遍认为，加拿大中产阶层的财政状况远没有过去好，但是 Fraser Institute 周三公布的一份最新报告，得出的结论却是，加拿大中位数收入比35年前增长了逾 50%。

报告题为“加拿大中产收入停滞的假象”(Myth of Middle-Class Stagnation in Canada)。

首席作者 Donald J. Boudreaux 指出，总理特鲁多和他的政府都曾表示过去数十年中产阶层没有充分享受到经济增长的收益。

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在去年联邦大选竞选中，特鲁多的自由党承诺为中产阶层减税 30 亿元。特鲁多称中产阶层工作时间比过去更长，而在经济收益中分享的蛋糕却更少。

特鲁多的话迅速得到选民的正面回应，自由党于是宣布为年收入 4.5 万元至 9 万元之间的纳税人税率从 22% 削减至 20.5%。

最常用于证明中产阶层收入滞胀的一个统计数据，是 1976 年至 2011 年之间，加拿大中位数收入家庭的收入经通胀率调整后，下跌了 7%。

但是 Fraser Institute 的报告认为，这一统计数据没有对中产家庭的财政状况作出全面准确的描述。

Fraser Institute 的研究考虑了一系列影响收入的因素，如购买力，家庭成员人数和政府的拨款，认为中产阶层平均每个家庭成员的年收入在过去 35 年中，从 25771 元，增长至 39200 元。

报告说：“真相是，中产阶层的收入比1970年代大幅增长，从购买力来看，收入远高于过去。”

报告更认为，政府针对中产阶层滞胀的不必要政策，对总体经济的危害大于益处。

中产阶层收入：

1976 年至 2011 年税率改革和政府拨款：实际中位数收入增长 5.6%
1976 年至 2011 年家庭人数缩减：家庭成员人均收入增长 30.7%
1976 年要购买一台微波炉的平均工作时间：109 小时
2011 年要购买一台(更先进)微波炉的平均工作时间：10 小时

计入以上因素后：平均每个家庭成员的中位数收入从 1976 年至 2011 年增长了 52%

加人负债危机

9 月 6 日至 9 月 12 日，会计师事务所 MNP Ltd. 对 1502 名加拿大人展开了调查。一半的受访者表示很后悔负债累累，还有 38% 的人表示利率不断升高会将自己逼向破产的边缘。

今年 2 月份，该公司的调查显示，43% 的受访者对自己目前的债务水平赶到担忧，如今，这个比例已经升至 52%。

MNP Debt 公司主席 Grant Bazian 在一份声明中表示：“越来越多的加拿大人对债务感到担心，事实上这是一个好的现象。很多家庭开始依赖利率低的信用卡来支付日常开支，但是我们不能再用更多的债务来支撑一种无法负担的生活方式。”

31% 的受访者表示已经无力支付账单，这其实就意味着经济破产。然而，40% 的家长表示，自己在学生返校上的开支很大，而三分之一的加拿大人表示暑假开销很大。出生于 1981-2000 年的人最为担心债务，人数比例大概是 60%，而千禧一代担心债务的人数是 52%，然后是婴儿潮时代人的 43%。和上次调查相比，阿尔伯塔省的债务危机增加 18%，其次是萨省和曼尼托巴省，债务危机增加 17%。

相关链接：

从统计数据看加拿大人未来生活的不确定性

原文：

The Myth of Middle-Class Stagnation in Canada — Published on September 28, 2016

A frequently heard complaint is that for the past several decades middle-class workers and families in Canada have stagnated economically. A typical rendition of this claim appears in the 2016 federal budget from the Department of Finance in Ottawa: “The net result is that even though there has been economic growth over the past three decades, it hasn’t much benefitted the middle class. Too often the benefits have been felt only by already wealthy Canadians, while the middle class and those working hard to join it have struggled to make ends meet.”

If it is true that over the previous thirty or forty years the material welfare of ordinary Canadians has remained stagnant, then this would indeed be a troubling state of affairs. But despite being incessantly repeated as if its truth were incontestable, the assertion of middle-class stagnation is a myth.

Like all widely accepted myths, this myth rests on superficially plausible foundations. Some data for Canada do tell a tale of stagnation or even decline. The inflation-adjusted median income of Canadian families before taxes was 7.0 percent lower in 2011 than it was in 1976. It’s easy to conclude from such a statistic that, over the past several decades, middle-class Canadians have indeed not gained economically.

But statistics, although invaluable, are notorious for their potential to mislead the unwary. Great care must be exercised when assembling, interpreting, and drawing conclusions from them. Statistics emphatically do not speak for themselves.

The statistics that suggest stagnation suffer several problems, including:

failure to adjust income for changes in taxes and government transfers;
failure to adjust family income for changes in the number of people in the typical Canadian family;
an overestimate of the amount of inflation suffered by the Canadian dollar.

First, instead of pre-tax income, looking at family income after taxes and government transfers reveals that, rather than falling by 7.0 percent between 1976 and 2011, real median income rose by 5.6 percent. This figure is more relevant for a family’s economic well-being, because what a family cares about in the end is how much it has available to spend (and to save) after it has paid all taxes and received all transfers.

Next, consider the effects of changes in the average size of families. In 2011, the average number of people in a Canadian family was 2.3, which is 19 percent lower than the 1976 figure of 2.9 persons per family. This difference is not small. It means that the seemingly meager 5.6 percent increase in real median post-tax and -transfer family income becomes a 30.7 percent increase—in per-family-member income—once the data are adjusted for family size.

Finally, consider the distorting effects of over-estimating inflation. The income and wage figures that tell the tale of stagnation are adjusted for inflation using the consumer price index (CPI). But researchers have found that this common inflation adjuster erroneously overestimates inflation of the dollar by about 0.45 percentage points annually.

This error seems small, but over the course of 35 years its distortion looms large. Adjusting for inflation by correcting for this bias in the CPI, we find that in 2011 the income per member of the Canadian family earning the median after-tax and -transfer income was 52.1 percent higher than in 1976. This figure suggests impressive economic improvement, not stagnation. It is all the more marked when compared to the initial 7.0 percent decline cited above over the same period.

An alternative way to gauge changes over time in ordinary people’s standard of living is to calculate how much time an ordinary worker must work today to earn enough income to buy a variety of goods compared to the amount of time an ordinary worker in the past had to work in order to buy the same goods. If the amount of work-time required to buy typical middle-class goods remains unchanged over time, then a conclusion of stagnation is warranted. But if work-time costs have fallen for most such goods, then a conclusion of stagnation is mistaken.

An examination of a wide variety of goods sold by Sears in 1976 and their counterparts sold by Sears today shows that the average Canadian wage earner today works fewer hours than he or she did in 1976 to earn enough income to buy almost all goods. For example, it took the typical Canadian worker 90 percent fewer hours to purchase a colour television and 84 percent fewer work hours to earn enough to purchase a refrigerator in 2011 than in 1976. These findings are yet further evidence that ordinary Canadians have enjoyed significant economic improvement since the mid-1970s.

The bottom line is that the myth of middle-class stagnation is just that: a myth.

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Canadian Debt Levels Would Crush Them If They Were $200 Higher: Survey

It would only take another $200 in debt for many Canadians to collapse under their monthly payments, according to a new survey.

Consumer insolvency firm MNP Ltd. spoke with 1,502 Canadians earlier this month for its latest study.

Fifty-six per cent of respondents said they’re only a couple hundred dollars from a debt crisis.

Another 52 per cent said they’re worried about their current debt levels — a response up nine points from February, said a Wednesday news release.

Half of surveyed Canadians said they regretted owing so much money, and 38 per cent said raising interest rates could “move them towards bankruptcy.”

“It’s actually positive to see that a growing number of Canadians are concerned,” Grant Bazian, MNP’s president, said in a statement.

“Many households have come to rely on cheap credit in order to cover expenses but we can’t continue to be comfortable taking on more credit to finance a lifestyle we can’t afford.”

“It’s actually positive to see that a growing number of Canadians are concerned.”

As many as 31 per cent of respondents said they already don’t make enough money to pay the bills, “technically making them financially insolvent,” the survey said.

Nevertheless, MNP found evidence of overspending.

Forty per cent of parents said they’d blown their back-to-school budgets, while a third of Canadians agreed that they spent more than they should have on summer vacations.

Generation X’ers were most concerned about debt (60 per cent), followed by millennials (52 per cent), and Baby Boomers (43 per cent).

Debt concerns grew most among Albertans, jumping 18 per cent from the last survey. Saskatchewan and Manitoba came second, with debt worries growing by 17 points.

The survey came amid reports that Canadian household debt levels are bigger than the whole economy now, on a nominal basis.

The Canadian household debt-to-disposable income ratio sat at 167.6 per cent in the second quarter, up from 165.2 per cent in the first.

But MNP’s findings also came during a period of sluggish wage growth.

Statistics Canada said wages for non-farm payroll employees only grew by $954 in February — only 0.4 per cent more than a year before.

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